Political scientist, Suren Surenyants talks about Russian military bases in Armenia, Armenian relationship with Georgia, Karabakh conflict, Armenian-Turkish relations and other issues in his exclusive interview with newcaucasus.com
– You’ve left the opposition, what was the cause of this move?
– I have left the political council of the party “Republic”, which is a part of Armenian National Congress (ANC) due to the consequences of my meeting with the Minister of Defense of Armenia, Seyran Oganyan in August of this year. The second reason is foreign-policy guideline of ANC. I’ve met the General Oganyan after painful events in the army. As a citizen of Armenia I was anxious by this fact and I made an appointment with the General and expressed my concern as well as listened to him. I was amazed by the reaction of my opposing fellows concerning this fact. I don’t think that Armenia is divided into barricades and that the representatives of opposition don’t possess the right to meet with the representatives of the authority. I believe that my meeting with the Minister has been conducive to the further discussions of the necessary reforms in the army. But the main reason was the Russian factor in the foreign policy of the Congress. After the validity period of the Russian military base in Armenia has been prolonged, I was sure that ANC will state blame of this fact but nothing happened. Moreover, the governing body of ANC has announced that the influence of the Russian factor in the region is quite impartial. After this I have decided that it is meaningless for me to act in the frames of ANC. However, this does not mean that I’ve changed my mind towards the authorities of Armenia. As earlier I still think that this is nonviable.
– And what do you think how viable the Armenian opposition is on the whole?
– The first President, Levon Ter-Petrosyan – is the most politically established figure in Armenia. He was able to create a system that has qualitatively been distinguished from previous opposition associations. ANC in the current political structure of Armenia is the most paramount factor. But there are things that are unacceptable for ANC to change. I’ve already stated my opinion concerning the Russian factor. Then – the absence of the internal democracy in the association. As a matter of fact, there is no big difference in the structures created by Serj Sarkisyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan; both of the structures are closed and differ by their own authoritarian style of governing. Another question is that the structure established by Ter-Petrosyan is more viable both in political potential and moral attitudes. I think that the question of special elections is closed and if there are no force-majeur situations (this could only be connected with the Karabakh incident) then the regular election will take place.
On the regular election the authorities have a huge resource of the continuity of policy. I believe that the next composition of the Public Assembly (parliament) the opposition will be accepted. Regardless of the suspension of their activities in ANC, I respect my friends from the party “Republic” that consists of people representing the team of Vazgen Sarkisyan (Vazgen Sarkisyan – ex Prime Minister of Armenia, assassinated during the act of terror in the parliament on October 27th, 1999) and I consider myself its representative. The Leader of the party is Vazgen Sarkisyan’s brother. And this is the only party in ANC which had openly spoken at the last meeting against the Russian bases in Armenia. In this respect I have no contradictions with the party. However, I don’t want to impede the relations between my party and ANC through my activities.
– During the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 Levon Ter-Petrosyan backed up the activities of Russia in Georgia. You have become the only representative of the opposition who has condemned the actions of Russia. What was the reaction of opposing forces?
– I still hold to this opinion. For me Armenian-Georgian relations are more valuable than any other political junctures. I will say more – for me Tbilisi is the second home town in the world. I find it impossible to support neo-imperialistic policy of Russia. Taking advantage over the problems of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia made an effort to restrict the independence of Georgia. I’m not delighted with the policy of the President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, but I will choose him by all means and not the leaders of Cheka Russia. I consider Armenian-Georgian relations not only brotherly but also strategic. As to Levon Ter-Petrosyan, he is not Messiah for me, he is – the first President of the Republic. I have always expressed my position regardless the fact whether it agrees with the position of Ter-Petrosyan. By the way, the day when Medvedev recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, I was on the Northern Avenue of Erevan on the democratic meeting, where people hissed the news. This is not connected with the fact that people spoke against the independence of any other people, but with the fact that our society is sure of the fact that today’s Russia is associated with the totalitarianism and occupation.
Javakheti – the bridge of Armenian-Georgian friendship
– What is the way you see the situation in Georgia today and what can you say of the policy in Georgia and what is your assessment of the activities of the Georgian opposition?
– It is always difficult to assess the situation from the view. Certainly the authority of Saakashvili has fulfilled some of the reforms, but in my view hasn’t born the consistent nature and the reforms haven’t led to the institutional consequences. But more grievous thing is the situation around the Georgian opposition. It seems that they couldn’t create an effective structure; it lacks the realistic approach. Let me set an example – the candidate from opposition, Levan Gachechiladze who participated in the Presidential elections with the slogan of the liquidation of the post of the President. It was clear that his chances were too low. The same mistake was made by Armenian opposition in 1997 when it took part in the parliament elections with the slogan of the President’s impeachment. Or in May, 2009, when ANC participated in the elections of the mayor of Erevan, stating that it represents the continuation of the elections of the President. Inadequate behavior is never assessed positively by a society. I think that it will be difficult for Saakashvili to tackle the issue of his succession. Perhaps Gigi Ugulava has gained a convincing victory during the election of the Mayor of Tbilisi, however, he does not possess the image of the national figure. I consider the situation in Armenia and Georgia similar with minor distinctions. The authorities do not have the resource to conduct cardinal reforms and opposition does not have the necessary resource of the qualitative change both in them and in the country.
– You’ve named the Georgian-Armenian relations strategic, what exactly do you mean?
– Current relations are not quite normal. There are some certain impeding factors, the main of which is – the authorities of both countries. The second factor is Russian one. Unfortunately, the political elite of Armenia is under the Russian influence. From the other side, pro-Western orientation of Saakashvili – that is mainly in form and not content. It is natural that the emerged situation hinders the development of our relationship. Fortunately, after the Russian-Georgian war, the authorities of our countries have mutually moderated behavior despite the Russian pressure. Serj Sarkisyan refused to acknowledge the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It seems that the authorities of our countries will succeed in finding the necessary formula in order to liquidate the Russian factor.
There is also a question concerning the region Javakheti. There is no main party that would support the independence of Javakheti. This region was and must be an integral part of Georgia. Another question is that authorities of Georgia have to create prerequisites for cultural autonomy of the residents of Javakheti as well as the mechanisms of social security. I was saying to one of my friend from Akhalkalaki that Armenians from Javakheti shouldn’t live in ghetto, that they are the same citizens of Georgia as the residents of Tbilisi, Gori and other Georgian cities. In other words the issue of integration of the residents of Javakheti in the social life of your country has arisen. All these issues can be settled, besides, there isn’t any Russian base in Akhalkalaki which represented a serious destabilizing factor.
– In your opinion, what should Georgian authorities do to integrate the populace of Javakheti?
– First of all it is necessary to eliminate the total police control in Javakheti. As far as I know, the authorities try to artificially control the social life in the region by means of their protégés on various positions. Moreover, some artificial obstacles were created during the last municipal elections for some candidates to participate. I don’t want people think that Javakheti can receive another new Abkhazia or South Ossetia due to the hasty policy on the North. It is necessary to pursue the new qualitative lingual policy. Nowadays the efforts to reduce hours of the lessons in Armenian language at Javakheti schools at the expense of hours of the lessons in Georgian language are held. I was told that there is a special structure that pays additional sums to the Georgian teachers and no payments to the Armenian teachers. In case residents of Javakheti receive proper social and ethnic guarantees, then I’m pretty sure that Javakheti will become the bridge of the Armenian-Georgian friendship. I can say for sure that Serj Sarkisyan, Robert Kocharyan, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and any next President of Armenia in no way will support any separatist movement in Javakheti.
– What do you think: Won’t it be easier for the residents of Javakheti be integrated into the Georgian society if they will use Georgian language fluently?
– The Armenians – residents of Georgia – have to know Georgian language as it is an official language of the country they reside. The citizens have to respect the laws of the country they live. In Armenia it is impossible to take up a position in the government if you don’t know Armenian. The Armenians of Georgia must know Georgian language but not at the expense of Armenian language. I will tell you more: I don’t consider the offer of Serj Sarkisyan to attach to the Armenian language in Georgia the status of the regional language as adequate. The relations of Georgia and Armenia should be built without any legal changes so that the issues concerning the languages in Javakheti could be settled by the residents themselves.
– What is your assessment of the early signing of the treatment between Armenia and Russia concerning the prolongation of the period of the Russian military base in Armenia? Virtually all political figures and social organizations of Armenia have positively assessed this fact…
– Unfortunately, the history of Armenia has witnessed such a President as Robert Kocharyan who suspended the peacemaking process to regulate Karabakh conflict in order to preserve his power and declared his slogan: “one border – three battlefronts”. All off this should have brought to the creation of the Russian-Armenian vassalage. Of course the situation could be changed only by legitimate President. Alas, Sarkisyan does not possess full legitimacy. Despite his efforts to conduct more balanced foreign policy, he is not able to withstand the Russian pressure. Moreover, there are many people in opposition that, coming from political conjuncture, turn their eyes towards Moscow. That’s why it was easy for Kremlin to compel official Erevan to such a treaty, which hasn’t provoked big inspiration in Armenia. However, all people openly talk only about the usefulness of its signing. Unfortunately, the struggle between authorities and opposition has embarked in Armenia to receive the go-ahead from the leaders of Cheka Russia. This is the worst situation, but it doesn’t reflect the reality or relations of our society. It is clear that public mood for the independence has grown in the blogosphere of the Armenian society. In other words, a man that strives for independence and freedom clearly grasps that this is possible only outside the sphere of influence of Cheka Russia. For instance, I have organized a group in the network of Facebook – “Armenia without Russian bases”; dozens of people have already joined. Soon I am going to transfer this movement in institutional character.
The base – leave by 2020
– To what extent does the military base in Gumri represent a serious battle unit? Could its military potential be used to settle the tasks both outside and inside Armenia?
– Nobody apprehends seriously the situation where this base will help Armenia in case of recommencement of Karabakh conflict. Russia will definitely prefer to sell weaponry to both Armenia and Azerbaijan as this had happened during the first war. Of course after President Medvedev’s visit in Armenia, the next visit he made was to Baku where he tried to convince the Azeri that nothing has changed in the status of Gumri base. The only thing that worries me that this base may hamper the relations between Armenians and Georgians and can become the cause of the strained situations between our countries. Fortunately, we do not have any borders with Russia and I am sure that Russian bases will leave Armenia by 2020. Now they have only signed a paper that doesn’t have long-term perspective. This treaty is only an expression of the Russian neo-imperialism. If the authorities of Armenia and Georgia follow wise policy then this treaty wouldn’t complicate our relations. Moreover, the restoration of Armenian-Turkish relations – is a real perspective and after this happens there won’t be any need in these bases.
– To what extent can the base act autonomously in Armenia?
– The policy of Russian authorities is unpredictable. I can’t exclude anything but I am sure that there are authority and opposition in Armenia that despite their mistakes wouldn’t allow such a rude interference in the affairs of their country.
– At what stage is the process of Karabakh conflict settlement?
-I support Ter-Petrosyan concerning this issue: he pointed out that Armenian-Turkish relations will become realistic only after any perspective in the Karabakh conflict settlement is seen. Most likely there will be some settlement of the Karabakh conflict in the following year or after the Presidential elections. After this the process of restoration of the relations between Armenia and Turkey will take place. The authorities and opposition in Armenia are not at variance. Both sides understand that the issue should be settled by means of compromises. It is natural that the issue of self-determination of Karabakh people is important for Armenian side. I believe that the principles of Madrid provide an opportunity for both Armenia and Azerbaijan not become a capitulated party. I’m pretty sure that the Karabakh conflict will be settled if Erevan and Baku reject an irrational slogan “Karabakh is ours”. It’s vital that Armenia and Azerbaijan understand that both countries are integral parts of the united Caucasus, which in its turn tries to integrate into the unified Europe. In this case the issue of territorial belonging is a question of minor importance.
– And how real is the recommencement of military acts in Karabakh?
– Unfortunately, nowadays the probability of this has been increased. First of all, the quality of the authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan contribute to this. Both authorities are authoritarian; both are occupied with the issues of manipulating the society more than the issues of establishment of the long-term peace. But the pragmatists hold the power in Erevan and Baku and they clearly understand the danger of the war. The Armenians have no reasons to start the war and in Azerbaijan this is more propaganda than reality. However, as the national rhetoric sounds from both sides, the danger of a war increases. In addition the interest of such players as Russia and Iran whose behavior is unpredictable is still strong.
And what about the absence of creative resource of Stalin’s heirs
– Do you think Russia is able to try and solve its problematic issues on the South Caucasus including Karabakh conflict, relations with Georgia through one big South Caucasian war?
– I strongly believe that today’s Russia does not possess such resources. Nowadays Russia has problems with the CIS countries, e.g. Byelorussia. I’m sure that Moscow will try to control the elite of our countries by means of prolongation of the term of the military base in Gumri and the intention to sell Azeri ZRK C-300. It is clear that Russia wouldn’t start a large-scale war due to the fact that there is a huge possibility that it will completely lose the South Caucasus. Russia tries to control the South Caucasus on the analogy of USSR. However, this is impossible in the modern world. It is impossible to expect creative resource from Stalin’s heirs due to which they were able to settle the problems of the South Caucasus in the long-term perspective.
– President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili has spoken at UN and proposed an idea of the unified Caucasus… To what extent is it real, especially if we consider that Armenia, according to the statements of Russian politicians, represents “the Outpost of Russia in the South Caucasus”, Azerbaijan keeps balance between the West and Russia, and Georgia states its pro-Western orientation?
– It is impossible to create confederation on the South Caucasus. The main reason is the quality of authorities again. In order to fulfill such issues we lack leaders of postwar Europe as for example De Gaulle. The main task these days is the liquidation of the seats of tension in the region. But I strongly believe that the future of South Caucasus lies in the establishment of a unified safety system. It is clear that we are parts of European and not Russian political system. Sooner or later the leaders of our countries will come to the understanding of this. Concerning Armenia I would like to add that I don’t consider the opinion of the fact that our country is indisputably the outpost of Russia right. We mustn’t forget that the large-scaled anti-imperialist movement began namely in Armenia in 1988. And the potential of our society would not let us to accept super-influence of any other country. Even the authorities of our own country can’t impose their will on our society; the striking example is the last elections of the President. The new generation is growing in Armenia including a political one that comes with the slogan of real independence.
Let me state a daring assertion for this moment – the political area of Armenia has greater potential than Georgia and Azerbaijan. We’ve got strong power and strong opposition and this means that Armenia has the resource to develop. In this aspect Armenia is able to come across the solution. The same ANC – is multilevel structure. Yes, Ter-Petrosyan hasn’t blamed censured the treaty of prolongation of the military base but he also hasn’t approved it, as he clearly understands that ANC will split after his statement. I believe that in the nearest time Armenia will become free from the Russian influence without any serious consequences. I’m pretty sure that during the elections of 2012-2013 a force will come out to the political arena that will come up with the slogan: “Armenia without Russian bases”. Having communicated with our society I can see that the society wouldn’t bear vassalic relations for long. The society remembers the events of October 27th and March 1st very well.
– What do you think the factor of Russian military base can influence the domestic policy in Armenia, and if it is possible to conduct punitive actions in Armenia itself “justified” by necessity to defend the safety of Armenia?
– The Army and police in Armenia do not possess big potential concerning the dispersion of meetings not only in Erevan but also in Tbilisi and Baku. That is if they are requested they will be able to do it. Thus they do not need any power support in this aspect. Another question is the political assistance from the side of Russia and the existence of the base in this frame is essential. The base itself cannot represent inner-political factor, the authorities do not need this. There are more than 4 000 people in the base and half of them are children of well-secured people of Armenia.
– Nevertheless, the existence of the Russian military base in Armenia is clearly important for Erevan especially if we take into consideration the fact that Moscow does not pay any rental for the base and the payment for public utilities are fulfilled by Armenian side.
– Alas and alack, it is true! Throughout the period when our President was Ter-Petrosyan, Russia was paying for the rental of the base. The changes have taken place during the times of Kocharyan. Unfortunately, Serj Sarkisyan has just updated the conditions of the base approved by Kocharyan. And the most degrading thing is that we pay for the loss of our independence. There could have been at least a symbolic payment, but it is certain that namely at Russia’s insistence the treaty is what it is today. I think Russia does not trust Sarkisyan’s authority as it is sure that he follows the pro-Western policy, and as a result the treaty was signed earlier in the form as it is now. This opinion of Moscow is fallacious, as Serj Sarkisyan has neither pro-Russian nor pro-Western orientation. His base is oligarchic and power structures. The misfortune of Armenia is that the authorities make concessions to the outer world in order to preserve their power and opposition does the same on the contrary. Alas! Such picture is being developed in Georgia as well. I was staggered when I’ve heard the news that some of political figures in Georgia have met with Putin…
He can’t be independent but he has longing for….
– From an outsider’s viewpoint it seems that Serj Sarkisyan, compared to Kocharyan, tries to build more independent policy from Moscow. To what extent is it true?
– It’s by all means so. Robert Kocharyan couldn’t grow from the leader of one of the Armenian province to a leader of the republic. Besides, he was a proponent of tough measures in the internal issues. The events of October 27th and March 1st happened during his being in power. Kocharyan is intolerant to all his political opponents. Everybody was surprised when he didn’t begin a run for the third term of the presidency; most likely due to the fear of confrontation with the people. The Russian model of power doesn’t operate in Armenia. A typically Karabakh model of power functions in Armenia. In other words this is authoritarian system with some democratic freedoms, a system which is based on the priority of the strong-arm structures. The current leaders of Armenia preserve their power due to Karabakh factor. Such situation has remained in Armenia since 1996.
Unfortunately, the second elections for Ter-Petrosyan have become the cause of fussy political scandals as a result of which Robert Kocharyan came into power. Nowadays Sarkisyan tries to put forward some democratic elements into his power, but at the same time he doesn’t want to reject many non-democratic bases of power. Of course there are fewer arrests, people are not beaten on the streets, however, there is a square in Erevan where you can’t hold a meeting and there are political prisoners as well. As to foreign policy, Serj Sarkisyan has some smart ideas. Let’s not forget that since 1993 he has been the minister of Defense, then the minister of National Security, then the Minister of National Security and Internal Affairs then again the Minister of Defense, Prime Minister and now – President. This man knows very well the elite of Armenia, he has a certain contribution in Karabakh war. The problem is that he is inconsistent in his foreign policy. Today he can support the Armenian-Turkish relations settlement, tomorrow – to initiate anti-Turkish meeting, on the third day – to have good relations with Moscow, and on the forth day – to understand that he won’t act as dictated by Kremlin. His main problem is that he doesn’t have any political team. As a matter of fact he does everything alone; he completely controls the situation in the country but very often he doesn’t know what to do. This results in that many people do not understand what the Armenian authorities want. Besides, the factor of the May 1st has essential meaning in Armenia, whether the details of meeting dispersal will be revealed or not. If not, then many would see in Serzh Sarkisyan the direct heir of Kocharyan. But that Sarkisyan is more tolerant than Kocharyan – is unequivocal.
Three questions for three people…
– If you had a chance to meet Serzh Sarkisyan, Mikhail Saakashvili and Ilkham Aliev what would you ask each of them?
– I would demand from Serzh Sarkisyan, as he is the President of my country, to settle Karabkh conflict and Armenian-Turkish relations sooner, as this is the key to the independence of Armenia. I would ask Mikhail Saakashvili not to disappoint millions of residents of post soviet area for who the notions of democracy and Saakashvili are identical. I would ask him after having created a normal democratic system of power in Georgia leave the policy and not to repeat a mistake of a more talented political figure, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. I would tell Ilkham Aliev that oil brings money in the modern world; however, it doesn’t bring freedom and happiness to people.
– In your opinion how should the Karabakh conflict be settled?
– It’s important for me that for three thousand years Karabakh was Armenian and would remain Armenian for the next thirty thousand years. I do not consider the issue of status as priority. The main thing is that people living there have guarantees of safety and freedom. From the moment the issue of status has become priority the chances of conflict settlement have been reduced by far as neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia is ready to this. The Karabakh conflict can be settled only in regional context. First of all, all consequences of war should be eliminated, concessions should be followed from both sides, Armenia should call the troops off some specific territories bordering with Karabakh, and Azerbaijan should refuse the blockage of Armenia. These steps will lead to the creation of atmosphere of trust, after which the parties may discuss the issue concerning the Karabakh status. The democratization of the authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan will assist to Karabakh problem settlement. Of course Armenia can’t cede Lachin and Kelbadjar to Azerbaijan until the status of Karabakh is grasped. I don’t think that other regions are neither free nor occupied. I consider them as the zones of safety that our Army is ready to release in exchange to international guarantees of safety. These territories must demilitarized, there shouldn’t be lodged any troops of Azerbaijan. International structures have to carry out their peacemaking mission. The status of Karabakh cannot be determined now. I guess future generations will do it. Maybe the President of Armenia who has had nothing to do with the war can solve it and the President of Azerbaijan who hasn’t promised to return Karabakh. I strongly believe that some times Karabakh will become the centre of the friendship between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And as France and Germany could settle their territorial problems after the war having become a locomotive of the unified Europe, so will Armenia and Azerbaijan together with Georgia may become the locomotive of the regional cooperation on the Caucasus. If Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia stick together no single destructive Russian factor will be able to operate. If our countries are able to live together no other foreign force which wants to restrict our independence will be able to do so. Russia is strong in the region while there are closed borders, conflicts, no legitimate authorities, energetic policy and Russian military bases. If we are able to open borders inside our region no other foreign force will be able to affect us.
Irakli Chikhladze, for newcaucasus.com
Translated by Ekaterina Jinoridze
