Hikmet Hajiy-zadeh: revolutions do not ensue at the call of democrats and are not put off under the pressure of autocrats

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The President of the Center of Political and Economic Research “Far Centre,” ex-ambassador of Azerbaijan in Russia, Hikmet Hajiy-zadeh tells newcaucasus.com of the influence of events in Arab countries on Azerbaijan, perils of the recommencement of Karabach conflict and the role of Russia in exclusive interview. According to the expert, Karabach conflict could be settled when Armenia becomes independent from Russia and Azerbaijan becomes a democratic state.

– Did the Arab revolutions have an effect upon the situation in Azerbaijan; and how is spring activization of opposition connected to the Arab events?

– The Arab spring is definitely exerting influence upon the social opinion of Azerbaijan; this is being discussed, emphasized and tried on here. Everybody is talking about this – from a taxi driver to the President. As soon as the events took place in Tunis and Egypt our authorities had ants in their pants – I just can’t think of any other expression. The authorities canceled all debts of population for communal payments and declared a struggle with corruption. The Prosecutor General has announced with lament that “we are the first to be blamed for corruption” that is unprecedented fact in the history of Azerbaijan. Demonstrative dismissals of sixth class officials have begun. The owners of small shops privately tell that for the last several months nobody came to them for share though each month they were scrounged of money…

As concerns to opposition and democratically oriented society, they think of how to straddle this “Arab” war, raise it and, as a result, they write and speak about it every day. Opposition forces have made several attempts to gather and arrange actions of protest with the hope to initiate a revolutionary wave. Unfortunately, there were no special results out of these hopes. Hopes that a sparkle will inflame the events similar to Tunisian ones haven’t come true. It seems that revolutions do not ensue at the call of democrats and are not put off under the pressure of autocrats as well. However, the population carries on talking about Arab spring and hoping for changes. Though in countries of our region, Muslim countries of Central Asia, in comparison to Arab countries there are other dynamics; it may be considered as the events there evolve in some other area. We experienced similar nationwide, national indignation in the beginning of 90s and 80s. But these events take place approximately once in hundred years due to the piled up common crisis and resentments throughout the centuries. We may have passed it already. And in Arab countries according to some commentators, common nationwide unrest began for the first time in the history of Arab civilization; these submissive people, who had been bowing throughout the centuries and resigning themselves to their masters, suddenly, conducted themselves in a different way.

But, somehow, Arab spring will remain as part of social capital for us and someday, I hope, it will show itself. Authoritarian-corrupted regimes in constrained countries like Azerbaijan feel comfortable when there are many similar regimes. People eat their bread, the power is transferred from father to his son and there is always a country where the situation is worse. In other words, dictators always have possibility to justify themselves – in many neighboring countries the situation is similar and even worse, so what do you want from me?! But now, when these countries are fewer and fewer, it is much more difficult to appeal to it. When people wake up around you than your island of “strict regimen” becomes less and less attractive.

In the nearest future similar liberal changes are being expected in Iran. And if it takes place there, then it will definitely affect our country and it will directly have an impact on Azerbaijan.

– Do you think that “revolutionary sparkle” might spread on Azerbaijan from Iran?

– It is not necessary. However, if there is a rational, at least half-democratic regime in Iran then the significance of Azerbaijan for the West will decrease. Our dictators won’t be needed any more. Nowadays, the Western leaders come here and decorate our leaders with orders and shake hands. Why? Because Azerbaijan is a single alternative way from the East to the West. Russia is from the North, Iran – from the South, there is only one route Black Sea-Georgia-Azerbaijan and further. The West needs our airports, railways through which the transit of goods to Afghanistan is arranged. According to Zgibnev Bjhezinski, Azerbaijan is a holdup-country. But if Iran will be open then Azerbaijan and Georgia will lose their roles. However, Georgia follows another progressive way. I can see that there are all signs in Iran that large-scale liberal reforms await Iran…

I acknowledge that Arab events were total surprise for me. Besides, Arab spring means the beginning of end of the “world Khomeinist revolution”. If earlier the liberal part of Arab world was inactive, and we have heard about the activeness of Islam only, then now, liberals (this is conventional name) step up. Attitudes of mind are changing, we don’t see radical Islam on Arab streets anymore, and we don’t hear slogans to destroy cinemas and so on. Absolutely another part of Islamic world has woken up. Moods of Bin Laden and Khomeinists are abating. And I am glad to see it.

If similar events take place in Azerbaijan, in your opinion, which scenario will they develop on? Tunis, Egypt or still Libya?

This is difficult to foresee. We can consider several versions. For example, the part of elite has woken up and decided to take democratic reforms in the country, in a nutshell, the government has been split. In this case, progressive part of elite will join to the progressive part of society, as a result of which we will get some social-political hybrid. The second version – pure opposition forces raise and they are massively supported by people. In this case there will be absolutely another scenario. There will be lots of troubles as current government has done lots of bad things during the years of power. I do not believe in the military coup d’état, as our army doesn’t represent politically active institution. Though, in theory, it is possible that some general-liberator will appear on a white horse, but now I can’t see this.

– In case of a risk of revolution in Azerbaijan, can the authorities provoke the beginning of hostilities in Karabach with the aim to shift the accent to outer threats?

– I don’t think it is possible. One should be out-and-out scoundrel and spit upon his country in order to preserve his powers. However, if it occurs, the events will develop according to the scenario of Russian-Georgian war of 2008. Russia will immediately interfere; military planes without wing markings will fly above and Azerbaijan will lose the bigger part of its territory, its transport junctions and so on. But I don’t expect this.

– However, skirmish has become more frequent on the confrontation line for the last time and more people are dying from both sides…

– This is the tactic of Azerbaijan government and the mood of the biggest part of our society – to perturb Armenians, shoot and not give them a moment’s rest.

I think the war isn’t anticipated. Although there are other signs, for instance, the purchase of armament and the strengthening of army. The authorities are permanently scaring Armenia with a possible initiation of war but if this happens it will become a tragedy fro our country.

– Is Status Quo in the area of conflict convenient for the “main” mediator – Russia? Isn’t Russia interested in a new war in order to get maximum control over the region on the whole?

– Of course, Status Quo suits Moscow completely. It may well be that such scenario exists in the Russian General Staff. What can it mean? Moscow took South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and now Georgia is completely lost for Russia and it became a hostile country. Similar situation will occur in Azerbaijan in case of war. For example, the war begins; Russia recognizes the independence of Karabach. Then Azerbaijan will be lost for Russia as well. For now, the current situation on the South Caucasus satisfies Moscow. It has lots of possibilities to exert pressure upon our countries.

– What do you think, how can Karabach conflict be settled?

– Karabach conflict can be settled when Armenia becomes independent (from Russia), and Azerbaijan will become democratic (for Armenians of Karabach could return under the jurisdiction of our government).

Besides, Karabach conflict can be settled when contradictions between the West and Russia will become milder or vanish. When Russian “bunker consciousness” that the whole world is against it and tries to move their rockets to the Russian borders will disappear then there will be no need in conflicts along the perimeter of Russia. The fears of Moscow are that if we leave them, in other words stop pressure on Georgia and Azerbaijan then NATO will come and place their rockets near our borders. And tomorrow Makhachkala may well leave, and then Kazan and enemies will take water from Baikal… The ideology is that the whole world is against them, they want to take oil, water and so on from them. Enemies have been approaching the borders since the times of comrade Lenin. And the next in turn frontier is Georgia and Azerbaijan. If this philosophy vanishes and the reconciliation, dialogue and cooperation with the West take place, Russia will become the part of a civilized world, then Karabach, Abkhazian and South Ossetian problems will be settled. If not, then conflict settlements will be postponed for indefinite time. The West, of course, worries about Georgia, but it doesn’t want to start the Third World War because of Georgia. Moreover, because of Karabach.

– Is it possible that Moscow assists Azerbaijan with the transfer of some of the territories by Armenia?

– Never. It may well be that western mediators exerted pressure on Yerevan so that Yerevan will agree to transfer the territories, but Moscow – never. Vice versa as I know, Moscow has always forbidden Armenia to agree to this.

– In your opinion, could bilateral negotiations between Tbilisi, Sukhumi and Tskhinvali be arranged? To what extent is it real to settle conflicts without Russia?

– I reckon that Abkhazia and South Ossetia don’t exist anymore. Those people in the presidential chairs are nobody. Even several tens of thousands of local people are deprived of will, opportunities to express themselves or take some steps. Everything is solved by an official from Kremlin or from Russian garrison. Now in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Karabach, it is as it is ordered from Moscow. Has anything Abkhazian remained in Abkhazia? Maybe a miserable quantity. And there is nothing left in South Ossetia as well. Abkhazians and Ossetians on their own free will fell into the bear’s breech of Moscow and now they are \”married\” to Russia for a long time…

– How do you see the future of South Caucasus?

– Conflicts similar to ours are not unique. What is going on in Gibraltar which was taken away by Britain from Spain? Nothing happens. And Spain continues to live. We will also continue to live if, of course, Russia does not come to reason and does not become a part of the civilized world. And if not – then the sword of Damocles will still be hanging over our heads; and shooting and killing will continue on the border… Despite everything, we need to develop, cooperate and become the part of the world’s community like Georgia is actively doing and Azerbaijan – not. We are not the first ones having suffered from Russian imperialism. It’s enough to remember Kurile Islands. Japan, by the way, is not a weak state. However, it can do nothing right now. That’s why I don’t see in the nearest perspective, cardinal changes for the countries of South Caucasus and I think that in spite of everything we must carry on working, developing and integrating into the world’s democratic community. We’ll see later…

Irakli Chikhladze, for newcaucasus.com

Photo from H. Hajiy-zadeh’s private archive

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