The possibility to utilize the Georgian territory to attack Iran by USA militaries is often discussed in various mass media. They say that after USA makes attack from the territory of Georgia, Teheran will respond by bombing Tbilisi.
However, taking into consideration that Georgia doesn’t have common border with Iran then it is impossible to attack Iran from Georgia directly – it will be necessary to “use” air domain of neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan.
According to tactics of American and Israeli air forces, it is much more advantageous to administer pointed strikes on the objects of strategic importance in the Northern part of Iran from the territory of South Caucasus. In order to reach Northern part of Iran from Azerbaijan by bombers 3-5 minutes are needed. And American “Super Hornets”, taking off from the drifting in Persian Gulf aircraft carrier, will need no less than 2 hours (in the meantime Iranian radars can easily trace them and open zenithal fire).
It’s unlikely that USA will use air domain over South Caucasus. The point is that there are 2 divisions of anti-aircraft rocket systems of C-300B type plus 8 launchers of C-30PM type of Armenian Army based on the territory of 102 Russian military base in Giumri. 18 fighters MIG-29 (2 of them are always on the lookout) that belong to Russian Air forces are on the Erevan aerodrome.
Powerful Russian radio locating station (RLS) of “Darial” type operates in Azerbaijan city Gabala that informs Moscow about what’s going on in the air space of not only Azerbaijan and Iran but also Iraq and India. Effective working radius of the station – approximately 6000km. RLS allows not only to launch rockets but also trace their trajectory that gives possibility to use antimissiles to neutralize threats.
Relatively modern radio-electronic and zenithal-rocket complexes of mean and short-range (including ZRK “BUK-M1”) are brought to the territory of self-proclaimed South Ossetia. However, in order to bring more powerful ZRK C-300 through Russian tunnel, the Russian Army will need only a few hours.
The division of zenithal-rocket systems of C-300PM type is dislocated on the territory of self-declared Abkhazia, which can be transferred from Gudauta to Gali in 3-4 hours.
So what do we have? Radio locating stations, radio-electronic means of reconnaissance, zenithal-rocket systems and fighters at disposal of 102nd military base in Giumri, 7th Abkhazian and 4th Tskhinvali occupational bases of south military region of Russia can fully control and block air space of South Caucasus especially from the Black Sea towards Georgia-Azerbaijan.
Pentagon is well aware of this. They know that as soon as American bombers appear in the air domain of Georgia, Russian General Staff immediately will inform their Iranian colleagues. As a result, the effect of suddenness will not be successful. And even in any state of things, the USA President will not run the risk and expose his pilots to the hazard of Russian anti-aircraft guns.
As they say, every cloud has a silver lining: coming from the above-mentioned, Georgia will not go down in history as a country, the air domain of which was used to attack Iran.
Nevertheless, if Tbilisi joins to anti-Iranian coalition, Teheran will possibly consider Georgia as enemy. Should we, in this case, expect attack from Iran on countries-members of coalition including Georgia?
The distance between the borders of Iran and Georgia – 160km., to the center of Tbilisi – 215km., and this excludes the possibility to use gun artillery and rocket systems of volley fire by Iran.
Air forces of Iran are armed with 13 storm-troopers Cy-25 (by the way, they were assembled in Tbilisi aircraft factory, 7 of them flew to Iran from Iraq) and 30 front bombers Cy-24MK that will easily fly from Iran to Georgia. However, this is doubtful coming from the factor of existence of Russian military base in Giumri. Yes, Kremlin opposes the hypothetical attack of the West to Iran but it will never let military planes of Iran fly over air domain of South Caucasus as it reckons the region the sphere of its influence.
It seems more dangerous that Iran has ballistic rockets. Due to the trajectory of rocket flight (the highest point of trajectory is more than 50-70km) their detection is rather difficult. And their shooting down is much more difficult.
Iran possesses ballistic rockets of tactical and theatre-of-war purpose, “Shakhabs” of various modifications. The radius of their operation varies between 300-350km (“Shakhab-1”) and up to 1500km (Shakhab-3”). That’s why any of them can easily fly from Iran to Georgia. Although it is rather doubtful that Iran will spend its scant supply of ballistic rockets on Georgia. Besides it chose more significant goals on the territory of Israel and countries of Middle East, where American military bases are located.
If we don’t stop Iran then in the nearest 3-5 years (if not earlier) it will have nuclear warheads equivalent to the explosion of 10-20 kiloton of trotyl at its disposal, which “Shakhab-3” or a ballistic rocket of more advanced type will transfer without any difficulties in a few minutes to Israel in 1000 km from Iran.
Hence, it is clear that Israel tries to prevent Iran from getting nuclear warheads by means of preventive air strikes and diversions (killing Iranian physicists and rocketeers). If it were not for the prohibitive policy of USA, Israel would have already attacked Iran. Presumably the military aviation of Israel will still undertake an effort to suddenly attack Iranian atomic and rocket targets, control units of air defense, positions of rocket complexes and others by air. It may well be that Israel may attack Iran through air domain of Iraq as after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime the air defense of Iraq almost doesn’t function.
The USA will definitely support Israel and for this it will use the possibilities of drifting in the Persian Gulf of the 5th operating fleet. It’s noteworthy that the 3rd atomic aircraft carrier (USS Enterprise (CVN-65) is already bound to the Persian Gulf that will join with two aircraft carriers there and this will become the final stage of preparation to attack Iran.
It seems as Israel and USA have different directions to fulfill air strikes on atomic and rocket targets of Iran so that not to use air domain of South Caucasus and Georgia.
And Georgia should be afraid of radioactive clouds more than Iranian ballistic rockets in case of destruction of Iranian atomic targets.
Irakli Aladashvili, editor-in-chief of military-analytical magazine “Arsenali” (Georgia), for newcaucasus.com
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